The Institute seeks to strengthen awareness of the risks associated with natural hazards. Each month, ICLR hosts a Webinar centring on current research and industry issues related to natural hazards. Slides from the webinars are then posted on the Institute’s website and recordings of the sessions are uploaded to ICLR”s YouTube Channel.
Friday Forums Archive
Earthquake Early Warning: Improving Protection from Earthquake – Henry Seywerd, April 21, 2022
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Key findings relevant to the Canadian context from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report – Linda Mortsch, March 11, 2022
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Functional Recovery for Lifeline Infrastructure Systems – Craig A. Davis, C A Davis Engineering, February 25, 2022
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Risk as Analysis and risk as Feelings – Lucy Jones, Lucy Jones Center for Science & Society, January 21, 2022
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Development, Responsibility, & the Creation of Flood Risk in Calgary – Timothy Haney, Mount Royal University, December 10, 2021
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Quantifying Financial Risks for Canadian Homeowners Using Earthquake Catastrophe Models – Katsuichiro Goda, Western University, November 19, 2021
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Disaster Coverage: How Media Report on Disasters – Kevin Quigley, Dalhousie University, October 15, 2021
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Coastal Flood Mitigation Canada: Promoting Evidence-based Approaches to Coastal Flood Risk Assessment – Nicky Hastings, Natural Resources Canada, September 24, 2021
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Part one – The National Guide for Wildland Urban Interface Fires – Noureddine Bénichou, National Research Council, August 20, 2021
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Part two – Impact Analysis of the National WUI Guide – Keith Porter, SPA Risk, August 20, 2021
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Observations from the July 15 Barrie Tornado – Gregory Kopp, Western University., July 28, 2021
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Stormwater Integrated Resource Planning (SIRP) – Susan Ancel., July 16, 2021
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Floodplain Mapping Over Canada – Slobodan P. Simonović, Western University., June 18, 2021
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2021 Hurricane season forecast briefing – Bob Robitaille, Canadian Hurricane Centre., May 27, 2021
Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance – Kovacs, McBean, Beal, Golnaraghi, Koval & Li., May 21, 2021
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Wildfire Season Forecast 2021 – Richard Carr., May 20,2021
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Building the Future of Resilience – Anne Cope., April 16, 2021
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Solutions for Tantramar Marshes Flooding – Jeff Ollerhead., March 19, 2021
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Town of Canmore, Working Towards a FireSmart Community – February 26, 2021
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How Residents Responded During a Tsunami Evacuation on Vancouver Island and How Similar Evacuations Might be Improved – Ryan P. Reynolds, Alexa Tanner., January 15, 2021
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Ensuring safety and serviceability of tall mass timber buildings for wind – Girma T. Bitsuamlak., December 11, 2020
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Fire Following Earthquake in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia – Charles Scawthorn and Keith Porter., November 13, 2020
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Reducing the Risk of Flooding by Implementing Better Practices for Sewer Construction – Barbara A. Robinson, Norton Engineering Inc., October 9, 2020
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Novel Experimental Tornado Hazard Modelling – Horia Hangan, Western University, September 18, 2020
Updating Canada’s Fire Danger Rating System – Mike Wotton, CFS-NRCan, University of Toronto, August 7, 2020
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Impact Resilient Roofing – Mark Okland and Vince Carrier, IKO, July 10, 2020
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The Anatomy of a Billion Dollar Hailstorm – Julian Brimelow and Sudesh Boodoo, Environment and Climate Change Canada, June 26, 2020
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Calgary Hail Damage – Glenn Smith, CRU Adjusters, June 26, 2020
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Exposing our Vulnerability to Hail Where Do We Go From Here? – Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, June 26, 2020
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Engineering and Economics: Building Cost Effective Resilient Structures – Kevin M. Simmons, Austin College & National Institute for Risk and Resilience, University of Oklahoma, June 12, 2020
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Thoughts on Living With Fire in Canada’s Forests – Marty Alexander, PhD, RDF, May 15, 2020
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A National Earthquake Risk Profile for Canada – Murray Journeay, Geological Survey of Canada, April 17, 2020
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Science-based wildfire management in Ontario – Colin McFayden & Dan Johnson, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, February 14, 2020
Canada’s 6th Generation Seismic Hazard Model: New insights on seismic hazard in Canada – Michael Kolaj et al, Natural Resources Canada, January 24, 2020
Near-Earth Asteroid Impact: A Rare but Interesting Hazard – Clark R. Chapman, Southwest Research Institute, December 13, 2019
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ICLR PERC Fire webinar – PERC Introduction -Michael Szönyi – Flood Resilience Program Lead, Zurich Insurance Group, November 22, 2019
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Reducing the risk of extreme wind induced damage – Girma T. Bitsuamlak, SHARCNET, WindEEE Research Institute, University of Western Ontario, September 20, 2019
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The Business Case for Disaster Preparation: Lower Societal Total Cost of Ownership – Keith Porter, University of Colorado Boulder and SPA Risk LLC, August 23, 2019
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The Northern Tornadoes Project: Identifying Every Tornado in Canada – Gregory A. Kopp, University of Western Ontario, July 19 2009
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Canada’s Changing Climate Report – Nathan Gillett and Xuebin Zhang , Environment and Climate Change Canada, June 14, 2019
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Modelling Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change – Slobodan Simonovic, Western University/ICLR, May 31, 2019
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2019 Hurricane season forecast briefing – Bob Robitaille, Canadian Hurricane Centre May 30, 2019
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Wildfire Season Forecast – Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada
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Wildfire Catastrophe Modeling: Analytics for a New Peak Peril -Chris Folkman , Senior Director of product management at RMS, April 26, 2019
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Hail: Challenges, Solutions and Future Prospects – Julian Brimelow, Meteorological Service of Canada, March 22, 2019
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Robust impact patterns: an approach to account for uncertainties in local sea-level rise vulnerability assessments – Jackie Yip, University of B.C., February 22, 2019
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TRCA Flood Risk Assessment Project – Rebecca Elliott, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, January 25, 2019
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More flood than meets the eye: The role of groundwater in the June 2013 Alberta floods – Jason M. Abboud, Dr. M. Cathryn Ryan, Dr. Gerald D. Osborn, Department of Geoscience University of Calgary, December 7, 2018
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Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Wind Disaster Risk Reduction Tool – Jeffrey Czajkowski, Wharton University
November 16,2018
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The Ottawa-Gatineau Tornado Outbreak: Observations from damage surveys – Emilio Hong & Aaron Jaffe, Western University October 12,2018
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Long range wildfire forecast for Canada – Hot and Smoky? Is this the new Reality? – Mike Flannigan, University of Alberta September 14, 2018
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Conflagrations! – Charles Scawthorne, SPA Risk LLC and University of California, Berkeley June 15, 2018
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2018 Hurricane season forecast briefing – Bob Robitaille, Canadian Hurricane Centre May 30, 2018
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Wildfire Season Forecast – Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada May 16,2018
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Flood Mitigation Planning in BC’s Lower Mainland – Steve Litke, Fraser Basin Council April 20, 2018
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Rising Waters, Difficult Decisions: Findings from the Calgary flood project – Tim Haney, Mount Royal University March 23, 2018
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Hail climatology for Canada: An update – David Etkin, York University February 16, 2018
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Urban rainfall: Climate change and extreme rainfall events – Andrew Wiens, Associated Engineering January 26, 2018
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Hurricane Irma damage assessment – Sarah Stevenson & Emilio Hong – Western University
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Exposure of Buildings to Wildfires: Vulnerabilities and Mitigation Strategies – Steve Quarles, IBHS
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Diagnosing and reducing basement flooding in existing and new homes – Barbara Robinson, Norton Engineering
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Hail impacts on automobiles: A state-of-the-art review – Adam Blazejowski, Western University
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Hurricane Briefing 2017 – Bob Robichaud, Canadian Hurricane Centre
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Wildfire season forecast 2017 – Kerry Anderson, Canadian Forest Service
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Lot-level approaches to control urban flood risk and mitigate basement flooding – Binns & McBean, U of Guelph
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Practical issues in updating IDF curves for future climate – Slobodan Simonovic, Western University
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National wildfire interface mapping for Canada – Lynn Johnston, CFS
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Great Cascadia megathurst earthquakes: Past, present and future – Kelin Wang, GSC
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Halton’s basement flood mitigation program; John Duong, Halton Region
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Challenges in understanding and projecting changes in extreme precipitation; Francis Zwiers, PCIC
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Rising sea level is not a flooding event; John Englander, International Sea Level Institute
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Why some homes survived: Preliminary lessons from the Fort McMurray wildfire; Alan Westhaver, ForestWise Ltd.
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Canadian Megadisasters: An exploration of sensitivities and implications for the insurance industry; Eric Robinson, AIR
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2016 hurricane briefing; Bob Robichaud, Canadian Hurricane Centre
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Wildfire season forecast 2016; Kerry Anderson, Canadian Forest Service
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Understanding the characteristics of hailstorms and hail damage through lab and field research; Dr. Tanya Brown-Giammanco & Dr. Ian Giammanco, IBHS
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Mapping extreme rainfall statistics for Canada under climate change; Slobodan Simonovic, Western University
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Reducing flood risk in the City of Toronto; David Kellershohn, City of Toronto
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IBC’s new flood maps: Leveraging data to effectively assess and manage flood risk; Lexis-Nexis
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Mapping methodology; Helen Smith, JBA Risk
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Perspectives on Climate Change Data and Information in Ontario; Ryan Ness, TRCA
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Flood and drought: What’s next for watershed management?; Kim Sturgess, Alberta WaterSMART
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Storm surge: Hurricane Sandy, our changing climate and extreme weather; Adam Sobel, Columbia University
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Building public confidence in emergency management; Tony Pearce, Dept. of Justice and Regulation, Australia
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Forecast Webinar: June 9 – 2015 Canadian wildfire season; Kerry Anderson, Canadian Forest Service
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Forecast Webinar: June 9 – 2015 Canadian hurricane season; Bob Robichaud, Canadian Hurricane Centre
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May 2015 – Risk reduction status of wildfire impacted communities in Canada; Alan Westhaver
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April 2015 – Dynamics of urban earthquake risk; Stephanie E. Chang; University of British Columbia
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March 2015 – Rapid warming and extreme weather events in mid-latitudes: Are they connected? Jennifer Francis; Rutgers
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February 2015 – Seismic risk management of buildings with a focus on post-earthquake functionality; Ghyslaine McClure; McGill
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January 2015 – Tornado’s impact: Eyes on the ground; Greg Johnson; Tornado Hunter
(Prezi file, available on request)
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December 2014 – A multifaceted approach to hail losses; Tanya Brown, IBHS
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October 2014 – The national riverine floodplain mapping framework; Tim Mereu, MMM Group
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September 2014 – The role of groundwater in flooding; Cathy Ryan, University of Calgary
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Special Webex: July 3, Observations from the Angus tornado; Greg Kopp, Western University
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Forecast Webinar: June 20 – 2014 Canadian hurricane season; Bob Robichaud, Canadian Hurricane Centre
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Forecast Webinar: June 6 – 2014 Canadian wildfire season; Kerry Anderson, Canadian Forest Service
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May 2014 – Predicting and projecting the frequency of extreme marine events; Keith Thompson, Dalhousie
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April 2014 – Forest fire management: A risk management perspective; Dave Martell, U of T
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March 2014 – Tornadoes in Canada: Improving our understanding; David Sills; Environment Canada
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February 2014 – Earthquake hazard maps for Ottawa, ONand Gatineau, QCwith a focus on seismic microzonation; Dariush Motazedian; Carleton University
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January 2014- CIA Water Damage Risk and Canadian Property Pricing Research Project; Jacqueline Friedland et al; KPMG
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November 2013 – Floodplain management in Ontario and emerging issues; Ryan Ness; TRCA
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October 2013 – Recent earthquakes that Canada can learn from; Garry Rogers; Geological Survey of Canada
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June 2013 – 2013 Hurricane Briefing; Bob Robichaud; Canadian Hurricane Centre
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May 2013 – How global catastrophe risks affect the supply chain; Paul Cutbush; Aon Benfield
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April 2013 – 1) Fire season prediction for Canada, 2013; Kerry Anderson, CFS (PDF)
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April 2013 – 2) The Burn-P3 fire simulation model; Kerry Anderson, CFS
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March 2013 – Blown away – Monetary and human impacts of the 2011 tornadoes; Kevin Simmons, Austin College
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February 2013 – Global Earthquake Model (GEM); Ross Stein; USGS
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January 2013 – Superstorm Sandy: An Environment Canada perspective; Geoff Coulson; EC
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November 2012 – Linking strain and seismicity for earthquake hazard estimation; Kristy Tiampo; UWO
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October 2012 – Modelling dynamic resilience to climate change; Slobodan Simonovic; UWO
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September 2012 – Canadian cat risk & modelling: 2012 and beyond; Guy Carpenter
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June 2012 – 2012 Hurricane briefing; Bob Robichaud, CHC
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May 2012 – Catastrophe reinsurance; Donald Morrison, Guy Carpenter
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April 2012 – Seasonal wildfire prediction for Canada; Kerry Anderson, CFS
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March 2012 – Observations from the Goderich tornado; Sarah Stenabaugh; UWO
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February 2012 – Increasing the reliability of flood risk modelling by using adequate elevation data and topography; David J. Ward & Ivo Banovsky, Intermap Technologies
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January 2012 – Earthquake risk in Canada and the National Building Code; Tuna Onur
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November 2011 – Performance of housings in extreme wind; Greg Kopp, UWO
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October 2011 – The science of climate change; Gordon McBean, UWO
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September 2011 – Scenario ShakeMaps for Canadian cities; Gail Atkinson, UWO
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June 2011 – 2011 Canadian hurricane briefing; Bob Robichaud, CHC
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April 2011 – 2011 Seasonal wildfire prediction for Canada; Kerry Anderson, CFS
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March 2011 – Drought, heavy precipitation and climate; Ron Stewart, UofM
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February 2011 – Fire sprinklers save lives; Sean Pearce, CASA
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January 2011 – Seismic hazard and seismic risk in Canada; John Adams, GSC
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January 2010 – Windthrow of trees – a geotechical engineer’s perspective; Tim Newsom, UWO
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February 2010 – Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping Using Geophysical Techniques; Jim Hunter, GSC
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March 2010 – Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessmen: Principles & Applications; David Lapp, PIEVC
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April 2010 – El Nino Southern Oscillation; Amir Shabbar, Envrionment Canada
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May 2010 – Some observations from the recent earthquake in Chile; Hanping Hong, UWO
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June 2010 – Hurricane briefing 2010; Bob Robichaud, Canadian Hurricane Centre
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September 2010 – Hamilton’s stormwater management; Nahed Ghbn, City of Hamilton
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October 2010 – Assessment of climate change risk to muncipal infrastructure – the city of London; Slobodan Simonovic et al, UWO
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November 2010 – Physics-based earthquake forecasting: Past, present and future; Kristy Tiampo, UWO
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January 2009 – Insurance Insolvency under Catastrophic Seismic Risk; Katsu Goda; UWO
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February 2009 – Mapping the future flood risk in the City of London; Slobodan Simonovic; UWO
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March 2009 – Precipitation Extremes: Both Dry and Wet; Ronald Stewart; University of Manitoba
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April – Making Flood Insurable for Home; Christian Bieri; Swiss Re
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May – Mapping Wildfire Risk in Canada; Jennifer Beverly; Canadian Forest Service
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June – Canadian Hurricane Centre Reflections; Peter Bowyer; Canadian Hurricane Centre (Part One)
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June – Canadian Hurricane Centre Reflections; Peter Bowyer; Canadian Hurricane Centre (Part Two)
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Sept – Summer Severe Weather; Geoff Coulson; Environment Canada
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Sept – Damage Observations from the Vaughan Tornadoes of Aug 20, 2009; Greg Kopp; UWO
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Oct – ARCTAS: Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites; Brian Stocks (Part One)
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Oct – ARCTAS: Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphhere from Aircraft and Satellites; Brian Stocks (Part Two)
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Nov – The Wind Engineering Energy and Environment (WindEEE) Dome; Horia Hangan (PDF)
January 2008 – Microzonation of Urban Areas: Application to Toronto; Hesham El Naggar; UWO
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February 2008 – The Lost Creek Fire: Vulnerability and Community Resiliency; Judith Kulig; University of Lethbridge
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March 2008 – How Geomatics Research contributes to loss reduction: the GEOIDE Experience; Nick Chrisman; University of Laval
April 2008 – Mould Spy – The development of a novel sensor for in-situ monitoring of hidden mould growth in building envelopes; Eric Savory; UWO
May 2008 – Urban Flooding; Michael D’Andrea; City of Toronto
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June 2008 – Homeowner Perceptions of Sewer Backup and Overland Flooding; Dan Sandink; ICLR
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September 2008 – Full Scale Testing at the Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes; Greg Kopp; UWO
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October 2008 – Earthquake Forecasting – Advances and Challenges; Kristy Tiampo; UWO
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January 2007 – Striking Back: An assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury-risk in Canada; Brian Mills; Environment Canada
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June 2007 – The State of Floodplain Mapping in Ontario; Don Pearson; Conservation Ontario
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September 2007 – A New Approach to Risk Assessment; Slobodan Simonovic; University of Western Ontario
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October 2007 – Forecasting Earthquake Ground Motions; Gail Atkinson; University of Western Ontario
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February 2006 – Disaster Mitigation; Kevin Simmons; Austin College
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February 2006 – Tornado Mitigation: Results from the Oklahoma Safe Room Initiative; Matthew Jaremski; Austin College
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April 2006 – Hurricanes and Houses: Causes and Consequences; Mike Bartlett; University of Western Ontario
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June 2006 – The Peterborough Flood; Malcolm Hunt; City of Peterborough
June 2006 – After the Flood, Peterborough and You: What happened and the Implications for your Industry; City of Peterborough
September 2006 – The impact of weather and tornadoes; Dan Sutter; University of Texas – Pan American
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October 2006 – August 19, 2005 Storm Event Final Report and Lessons Learned; Don Haley; Toronto and Region Conservation
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January 2005 – The United Firefighting Initiative; Roger Schroeder and Darren Hutchinson; Extreme Fire Services and Quintech Fire Services
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September 2005 – A Behind the Scenes Look at the Weather Network; Ron Bianchi; The Weather Network
October 2005 – Fortified… For Safer Living; Chuck Vance; Institute for Business and Home Safety
November 2005 – Some observations of damage from Hurricanes Katrina and Dennis; Greg Kopp; University of Western Ontario
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February 2004 – Testing Full-scale Houses to Simulated Extreme Wind Loads; Mike Bartlett; University of Western Ontario
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September 2004 – 2005 National Building Code of Canada, Seismic Design Changes: Impact on Insurance Industry; Richard McGrath
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November 2004 – Severe Ice Storm Risks in Ontario; Heather Auld and Joan Klaassen; Meteorological Service of Canada
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February 2003 – Water Vapour over the Canadian Prairies: And Links with Precipitation and Extremes; Ron Stewart; McGill University
May 2003 – Updated CRESTA Zone Project; EQECAT Catastrophe Management; Rob Philbrick; ABS Consulting
December 2003 – Experiencing Disaster: Effects on Household-Level Emergency Preparedness; Brenda Murphy; Laurier Brantford
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May 2002 – Wildfires and Insurance; Paul Kovacs; Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
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January 2001 – Research Initiatives at Emergency Preparedness Canada; Chris Tucker; Emergency Preparedness Canada
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February 2001 – Four Seasons of Damaging Storms in Canada; Mike Leduc; Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada
June 2001 – Tornadoes and Severe Weather Forecasting; Paul Joe; Meteorological Service of Canada
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October 2001 – UK and Global Responses to Flood Hazard; David Critchton
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June 2000 – Reflections on the Future: Climate change and its impacts on the Insurance Industry; Angus Ross; SOREMA N.A.
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July 2000 – Canadian Weather Research Program; Jim Abraham; Environment Canada
September 2000 – Flood Mitigation Efforts in the Red River Basin; Slobodan Simonovic; University of Manitoba; University of Western Ontario
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October 2000 – Hurricane Hazel and the TRCA; The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority
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December 1999 – The Building Code and the Regulatory Canada Environment; Cathleen R. Taraschuk; National Research Council Canada
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Conferences
Agenda: Protecting Canadian homeowners and communities from wildfire in a changing climate (PDF)
Lessons learned from 2003 and 2011; Peter Fuglem, Dir., B.C. Protection Program (ret.) (PDF)
Insurance panel
Glenn McGillivray, Managing Director, ICLR (moderator)
Bob Dorion, Vice President, Claims, Peace Hills Insurance
Ian McKay, Dir. Claims Prop. Appraisal Field Ops, Northbridge Insurance
Troy Bourassa, Director, Claims, Albert Motor Association
Slave Lake: Response and recovery; Coutts & Missal, Town of Slave Lake (PDF)
Workshop synoposis and group discussion; Alan Westhaver, Parks Canada (Jasper) (ret.) (PDF)
CSRN workshop agenda Jan 2012 (PDF)
Progress related to the Canadian Seismic Risk Network; Denis Mitchell, McGill (PDF)
Seismic hazard assessment for Canadian Urban Centres; Gail Atkinson, UWO (PDF)
Short- and intermediate-term earthquake hazard in Eastern Canada; Kristy Tiampo, UWO (PDF)
Seismic microzonation studies for the City of Ottawa; Darisuh Motazedian, Carleton University (PDF)
Seismic microzonation studies for the Montreal region; Luc Chouinard, McGill – Part One (PDF)
Seismic microzonation studies for the Montreal region; Luc Chouinard, McGill – Part Two (PDF)
Quick seismic screening of buildings; Murat Saatcioglu, University of Ottawa (PDF)
Important Links
Canadian Seismic Risk Network http://csrn.mcgill.ca/main.html
Earthquakes Canada – Natural Resources Canada www.earthquakescanada.ca
Working group on Seismic Hazard Microzonation in the Ottawa Region http://http-server.carleton.ca/~dariush/Microzonation/main.html
CMOS Online Congress 2020
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 54th Congress, Session 11 – Interdisciplinary and Climate Research on Resilience
The global climate is changing, and Canada is warming at about twice the rate of the planet. The World Economic Forum 2020 Global Risk Report, for the next 10 years, ranked extreme weather events and climate action failure to mitigate and adapt as two of the most likely and impacting risks. In addition, all WEF reports over the past decade have identified water crises, food and human security as risks of highest concern into the future. To reduce the impacts on Canadians and all societies there is need to address these issues through interdisciplinary and climate research to inform the development of resilient societies. This session will have presentations on the extreme events in the future climate and an example of fundamental science on greenhouse effects. Presentations will address the need to understand our interactions with the natural environment including water and ecosystem services, and how the knowledge of Indigenous and Western science can work together to effectively address these issues. The importance of ensuring that Canadian National Climate Archives preserve reliable historical records and provide better access to and the communications of climate information and how the utilization of novel methods like machine learning that use new sources of data like social media can enhance weather and climate communication will be examined in other presentations. As the extreme events increase, there is need to go from risk to resilience and use science to build resilient communities. In addressing these issues effectively, estimates of the costs of climate change for Canada and a Canadian perspective on achieving net zero emissions and impacts are essential. The Session will provide interesting and varied scientific perspectives on Building Societal Resilience to Changing Weather, Climate and Environment, the overall theme of CMOS Congress 2020.
Presentations Part 1
Gordon McBean – Session Chair – Introduction
Francis Zwiers – Extremes in the future climate
Dawn Martin-Hill – Ohneganous: Water as the first environment.
Charles Lin – Climate Change, Energy, and Net Zero: A Canadian Perspective
Dale Beugin – Estimating the Costs of Climate Change for Canada
Natalie Carter – Collaborative survey development and training to understand Inuit uses and needs for weather, water, ice and climate information
Presentations Part 2
Roger Pulwarty – Going to extremes: from risk to resilience
Paul Kovacs – Using science to build resilient communities
Anna Deptuch-Stapf – Canadian National Climate Archive – Ensuring Reliable Records
Renee Sieber – Communicating Winter Storms via Natural Language Processing of Social Media
Paul Godin – Collision-Induced Absorption of CH4-CO2 and H2-CO2 Complexes and Their Effect on the Ancient Martian Atmosphere
Please acknowledge these presentations and their publication and reference them as: for example:
Zwiers, F., 2020: Extremes in the future climate. CMOS Congress 54. https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Francis_Zwiers.pdf